The United States and Canada: Immigration Policies in the Spotlight

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, his intentions on illegal immigration are becoming increasingly clear. Key appointments of hardliners like Stephen Miller as deputy White House Chief of Staff for Policy and Tom Homan as the border czar underscore a firm commitment to tackling undocumented immigration. These appointments suggest a future filled with imminent deportations, potentially reaching into the thousands or even millions.

Trump's proposed policy is ambitious, with plans to use potentially punishing tariffs to coax Mexico into compliance. This stance is likely to stoke tensions and could risk a massive rupture with one of America’s closest trading partners.

A New Era of Immigration: Canada's Crackdown

However, recent immigration crackdowns in Canada could serve to bring these close allies even closer. This could pave the way for a more fortified and fruitful relationship during Trump's second four-year term. Ottawa’s recent immigration measures could potentially act as a guiding North Star for Trump's administration, still shaping its own approach to this complex issue.

In 2024, Canada turned away nearly 4,000 people per month on average, marking a 20 per cent increase over the 2023 average. Moreover, immigration officials rejected more visitor visa applications per month than they accepted. In July 2024 alone, Ottawa denied entry to 5,853 foreign travellers - the highest number of rejections since January 2019.

The Future of Immigration: A Shift in Policy

Data also indicates a significant decline in approved visitor visas, as well as study and work permits, which had previously soared to record highs in 2022 and 2023. This sharp change in policy could signal a new era of immigration, making the incoming Trump administration a more welcome and willing partner to its northern neighbour.

The alignment of policy between these two nations could help to smooth over any remaining tensions between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. The lingering memory of Trudeau's hot-mic moment, in which he was caught criticizing Trump at a NATO Summit reception, is likely still fresh in Trump's mind.

The recent shift in Canada’s immigration policy, however, places the country at the forefront of what is likely to be a key issue in Trump's second term. As these neighbours navigate the complexities of immigration, their policies could set a precedent for other nations grappling with similar challenges.